Reaping Hints, Try 2

Meghan
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Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 13:34:03 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Meghan on Jun 5, 2014 13:34:03 GMT -5

The cbox collectively decided that the original Reaping Hints thread was way too confusing. Therefore we are re-opening it, with staff-approval, to make the hints easier to find.

PLEASE DO NOT POST IN THIS THREAD UNLESS YOU EITHER HAVE A NEW HINT OR YOU ARE SOLVING THE HINTS. DO NOT POST JUST TO POST. THANK YOU!

Hint #1
All the tributes have at least one lung.

Hint #2
There's at least one tribute who had a sibling in the games.

Hint #3
All the tributes have blood.

Hint #4
9 of the tributes are 18
6 of the tributes are 17
3 of the tributes are 16
The rest are younger, meaning 6 tributes are 12-15

Hint #5
10-13 of the tributes are first time owners. (Aya believes it is 10, or 11 but she says there is potentially a 2 tribute margin error because she got a bit confused).

---

Potential sib trib families:

[district one]
Dempsey
Lightwood
Moreno
Shore

[district two]
Antoinette [Halcyon Antoinette, sister of Cricket]
Pine [Arianna, Phyneas, Kronos, siblings of Ares]

[district three]
Frost
Sullivan
Mephistophleles [Rovena, sister of Cerise]
Vandel [Damea, sister of Drace]

[district four]
RIPLEY [Jude, brother of Noah and Fitz]
Krearns
Libertine
Lovelace [Priscilla, sister of Locust]
Roxen [Milen, Lulianna, Drae, Celine, Iphigenia, Anthony, siblings/half-siblings of Mizar]

[district five]
Bison [Crimson, brother of Shadow]
Magpie
Radke [Cole, sister of Cassie]
Sycamore
Wie [Io, sister of Sundra/Storm]

[district six]
Hartmyre
Ivashkov [Victor, brother of Mikhail]
Keeni
Bloom [Calliope, sister of Aesop]

[district seven]
Grant [Cecil, sister of Curtis]
Knight [Jason, half brother of Owen/Alexander]
Felies

[district eight]
Carey [Olivia, Eva, Helen, sisters of Savannah]
Wolfe
Woodards [Hitchcock, half-brother of Pandora and Hope]

[district nine]
Angelis [Harmon, sister of Eden]
Drummond-Porter [Wesley, brother of Wednesdae]
Jay [Skylar, brother of Storm and Jabber]
O' Leary [Hannah, sister of Soap]

[district ten]
Cardo [Anna, sister of Thistle]
Emberstatt

[district eleven]
Izar? possibly?
Rose? maybe?

[district twelve]
Peverell [Peter, Susan, siblings of Lucy]

If you have more sib-trib families, have a correction, or know the names of potential sib-tribs post here.

---

Age odds (find out your odds now!)

There are 344 eighteens.
349 seventeens.
203 sixteens.
332 twelve-fifteens

making the odds
9/344 for 18
6/349 for 17
3/203 for 16
6/332 for 12-15

or
2.6% chance for 18
1.7% chance for 17
1.4% chance for 16
1.8% chance for 12-15

To calculate your own odds based off of these numbers, simply times that number by the amount of reaping-eligible characters you have of that age.

To figure out your overall odds of being in the games, add your odds for each age up. See my example below.

Last Edit: Jun 5, 2014 17:53:23 GMT -5 by Meghan

pup
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Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 13:59:35 GMT -5

Quote

Post by pup on Jun 5, 2014 13:59:35 GMT -5

Meghan Requested The Roxen names so here they are. (You can click the link for the Roxen thread.)

Mizars Full Siblings:
-Lulianna/sister/16/emsrocks
-Drae/brother/15/demi

Half Siblings:
Milen Roxen/15/Puppy/Misa Campo/Mrs. Roxen

Celine Roxen/14/Dreams/faceclaim/Mrs. Roxen

Iphigenia Roxen/17/Minie/faceclaim/Mr. Roxen

Anthony Roxen/16/Briar/faceclaim/Mr. Roxen

^Made by the amazing Onyx^

minie Veteran Member 1,631 POSTS Pronouns: She/Her last seen Apr 24, 2024 14:25:08 GMT -5	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 14:04:21 GMT -5 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by minie on Jun 5, 2014 14:04:21 GMT -5 There are also Keanu's siblings so the Frosts
	Characters//UPAT Tracker

shrimp Retired Staff 1,953 POSTS Pronouns: he/his last seen Oct 19, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -5	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 14:19:04 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by shrimp on Jun 5, 2014 14:19:04 GMT -5 The only Wie eligible to be reaped would be Io, sister of Storm and Sundra. The only Bloom eligible to be reaped would be Calliope, sister of Aesop
	Last Edit: Jun 5, 2014 14:19:24 GMT -5 by shrimp

gamemaker 💀 hades lochlan Administrator 7,695 POSTS Member is Online — 🥀 —	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 14:37:56 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by gamemaker 💀 hades lochlan on Jun 5, 2014 14:37:56 GMT -5 Drace has a sister in district three named Damea.
	^{I AM A GARDEN OF BLACK AND RED AGONIES}

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and i will hold you tight / like the moon in the arms of the sky

Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 15:26:37 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Stare on Jun 5, 2014 15:26:37 GMT -5

Idk if we're only doing oldest siblings for sib!tribs, but there are actually currently three reapable Carey sisters - Olivia (who you have already ^^), Eva, and Helen.

Also, Hitchcock Woodards is the half brother of Pandora and Hope Woodards in District Eight.

Wonder Career Tribute 675 POSTS Pronouns: they/he last seen Aug 11, 2023 10:06:03 GMT -5 everything is zoe's tbh.	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 15:44:39 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Wonder on Jun 5, 2014 15:44:39 GMT -5 Can't believe my characters with no lungs don't stand a chance
	peri-snot styler

Meghan
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Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 17:16:22 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Meghan on Jun 5, 2014 17:16:22 GMT -5

Updated. Please continue to post names here.

If anybody is supremely bored and wants to make arrange the eligible characters by age-category (i.e. a list of the 18s, a list of the 17s, a list of the 16s, and a list of the 12-15s) that would be supremely appreciated. That way we could see the odds of each character being reaped via that method. We know we have 9 eighteens, 6 seventeens, 3 sixteens, and 6 twelve-fifteens.

EDIT:
There are 344 eighteens.
349 seventeens.
203 sixteens.
332 twelve-fifteens

making the odds
9/344 for 18
6/349 for 17
3/203 for 16
6/332 for 12-15

or
2.6% chance for 18
1.7% chance for 17
1.4% chance for 16
1.8% chance for 12-15

To calculate your own odds based off of these numbers, simply times that number by the amount of reaping-eligible characters you have of that age.
For example, I have three under sixteens (Milo at 14, Bianca at 15, and Quincey at 14). I would calculate the 1.8% odds for 12-15 by 3 and find out that the chances of me being one of the six 12-15s is 5.4%

My odds are as follows:
18 - 10.4%
17 - 6.8%
16 - 8.4%
12-15 - 5.4%

Giving me about (I believe, I am hoping I did not do the math wrong) a 31% (or just under 1:3) chance that I am in the games, based off of the clues we have. Enjoy figuring your odds out!

Last Edit: Jun 5, 2014 17:39:07 GMT -5 by Meghan

[ retro gm ] angel lí ✨ Advertiser 8,148 POSTS Pronouns: she/her last seen Apr 25, 2024 5:22:42 GMT -5 bloomtodeath	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 19:31:20 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by [ retro gm ] angel lí ✨ on Jun 5, 2014 19:31:20 GMT -5 D5f Luna Shim [ArcticWoof]
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Victory
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party like it's 1999

Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 19:55:50 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Victory on Jun 5, 2014 19:55:50 GMT -5

We have intials!

S B T J J E D A M D M V L I C V N E S P C J F C

Since we don't know if this is first or last names I've only added people to this list whose both initials are not in the group Aya gave us.

Kalypso Heart
Genesis Reese
Kroptonite Zei
Zephaniah Zei
Ryo Kawada
Zehrili Qatil
Uma Reinhart
Xylan Hertz
Uriah Whyte
Wynter Rochelle
Kang Kim
Glasia Granger
Olivia Warsaw
Wisteria Oleander
Riley Halifax
William Wesleton
Willow Oak
Winter Yearly
Kyanite Ruze
Uriel Humber
Kira Kira
Ryan Young
Karina Willows
Randolph Williams
Zephaniah
Riddle
Rose Waters
Russet Rex
Ross Wolfe
Rhode Harrow
Zoe Hilt
Hades
Helena Wu
Riley Rain
Riley Kane
Zebera Keeni
Olivia Revenue
Gemini Ryder
Oceania Krearns
Obsidian Rye
Hunting Harper
Zana Kane
Rene Rallis
Holland Hart
Hitchcock Woodards
Zeki Webb
Willow Rex
Kitty Keeni
Gregoria Hijisaksmal
Galago Kolvanko
Garric Hae
Robin Keeni
Kelsie Hnda
Kiena Ward
Raegan Harold
Quincey Rose
Hannah O'Leary

So I might've missed some people ~~don't hurt me~~ but this is everyone who doesn't even have one initial on the list.

Last Edit: Jun 5, 2014 21:50:41 GMT -5 by Victory

Kire Retired Staff 2,937 POSTS Pronouns: she/her last seen Jul 16, 2015 21:45:21 GMT -5 thinking about thonking	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 20:21:34 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Kire on Jun 5, 2014 20:21:34 GMT -5 Update on the Jays list ^^ Westimer, Mocking, Red, Baptist, Mist, Devil, Violet, Autumn Lily, Juliette, Fawn, and Angel are the other possibilities.
	On hills and waves on stormy days.

L△LIA
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BOOM SH△KALAKA

Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 20:22:08 GMT -5

Quote

Post by L△LIA on Jun 5, 2014 20:22:08 GMT -5

The Grimms are in D1 (I only know that both Nero and Cerberus Grimm are in the Reaping). Technically they're cousins, not siblings, to Xanthus, but lbr I doubt Aya knows that. XD The Partridges are in D7, adopted siblings of Claire, and I have Enoch Partridge.

I don't think Jude Ripley would be in the Reaping, since he was 18 and Reaped last Games? But Nino Ripley is in there. Harper Libertine and Kasper Cowie-Libertine, too.

Jericho Mykonos-Moreno in D1. Esther Hartmyre in D6. Icarus Emberstatt in D10. ~~I don't age my characters unless people make me shhhhh, Icky can be 17 for a fictional decade, that's acceptable~~.

Jfc. I have a lot of trib siblings.

( C H A R A C T E R S )

lionel estrada d5 ᥫ᭡ kiah Moderator 4,606 POSTS Pronouns: She/Her last seen Apr 25, 2024 5:22:11 GMT -5 #expensivetrash	Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 20:23:57 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by lionel estrada d5 ᥫ᭡ kiah on Jun 5, 2014 20:23:57 GMT -5 In the Ivashkov's there is Victor and Yegor ^^
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Kire
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thinking about thonking

Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 5, 2014 21:54:34 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Kire on Jun 5, 2014 21:54:34 GMT -5

So here are all the characters unable to be reaped.

S B T J J E D A M D M V L I C V N E S P C J F C

A B C C C D D E E F I J J J L M M N P S S T V V

District One Male
26 [Elegant] 18
Hunting Harper [2934] 17
Russet Rex [Kire] 12
Ryan Young [Yoya] 17

District One Female
Willow Rex [eerily] 16
Wisteria Oleander [rebelia] 18

District Two Male
Randolph Williams [Meghan] 17
Rhode Harrow [Lalia] 12
Riddle [Semper] 17
Zephaniah [Semper] 17

District Two Female
Kyanite Ruze [Marree] 17
Olivia Revenue [Marree] 15
Wynter Rochelle [Zoe] 17
Zoe Hilt [zony11] 12

District Three Male
Opius Holmes [Cass] 17
Ross Wolfe [Kire] 18

District Three Female
Kalypso Heart [emsrocks] 17
Kiena Ward [Stare] 17
Riley Rain [Minie] 16

District Four Male
Riley Halifax [Mylee] 17
Tristyn Seering [Arctic] 17
Uma Reinhart [Cass] 18
Uriel Humber [Rave] 17
William Weselton [Puppy] 17

District Four Female
Kelsie Hinda [Kiah] 16
Oceania Krearns [Ani] 18
Rose Waters [Jess] 14

District Five Male
Garric Hae [Evaoverbee] 17
Zeki Webb [awesomerob13] 18

District Five Female: Luna Shim [Arctic] 15
Adele Santiego [Dars] 17
Adelina Willows [Ani] 18
Anya Lily [Minie] 18
Arabelle Hart [Clover] 18
Arian Bison [Ani] 15
Arwen Sycamore [Clover] 17
Asuma Starling [Cass] 18
Bonnia Ethned [Pogue] 16
Cameron Dialate [Puppy] 16
Denali Lyon [Lalia] 17
Drew Whitley [Dancingdreams] 15
Emmery Johnson [Jess] 17
Etra Petrol [Awesomerob13] 16
Fallon Payne [Stare] 17
Harriet Sabel [clover] 14
Hayden Schmide [Minie] 12
Heidi Bison [Mylee] 15
Io Wie [shrimp] 18
Jasmine Turner [Zoe] 16
Jude Pecunia [Pogue] 17
Karina Willows [Loony] 13
Katrina Ivansoka [Ella] 13
Kimia Bison [Minie] 15
Lauren Rosenbaum [Glimmer] 12
Lilith Sycamore [Stare] 18
Lilly Ion [Kitty] 15
Maedra Belrose [Meghan] 17
Malina Thyme [Kiah] 16
Nina Larkin [Freshy] 18
Peregrine Lyons [Lalia] 14
Rio Lyons [Lalia] 12
Rayne Condrey [Reasons] 15
Ruth Sycamore [Cait] 15
Ruze Valfierno [Kire] 16
Sadie Barton [Mylee] 17
Sahalie Avner [Sahalie] 14
Samira Hart [Zoe] 18
Seville Lyons [Lalia] 16
Sienna Tatienne [xdawn] 16
Tallulah Lyon [Clover] 15
Tetra Read [Anna] 17
Trix Valfierno [Rook] 18
Velvet Bison [Nyte] 16
Veselin Petrova [Rebelia] 17
Wendy Darling [Stare] 18
Wyspyr Candlewyck [Nyte] 15

District Six Male
Kang Kim [Lalia] 18
Kitty Keeni [xdawn] 12
Kryptonite Zei [emsrocks] 17
Robin Keeni [Wonder] 16
Zephaniah Zei [emsrocks] 18

District Six Female
Galaxy Rose-Clements [Shrimp] 18
Gregoria Hijisaksmal [glimmer] 17
Kirito Youki [Cass] 17
Zebera Keeni [Dars] 16

District Seven Male
Galago Kolvanko [Evaoverbee] 16
Raegan Harold [Meghan] 17

District Seven Female
Hades [Elegant] 18
Hazel Kasimatis [rebelia] 17
Helena Wu [Elegant] 17
Hermia Walters [Kiah] 16
Kira Kira [Mew] 17
Willow Oak [Puppy] 17
Winter Yearly [Puppy] 17

District Eight Male
Hitchcock Woodards [Rook] 18
Preston Hope [Arctic] 16
Rene Rallis [Rook] 18
Riley Kane [Dars] 18

District Eight Female
Glasia Granger [Zoe] 17

District Nine Male
Ryo Kawada [emsrocks] 14

District Nine Female
Hannah O'Leary [rebelia] 13
Holland Hart [Rook] 18
Katerina O'Leary [Nyte] 16
Quincey Riggs [Nyte] 17

District Ten Male
None

District Ten Female
Hardie Roxen [emmarose] 15
Olivia Warsaw [Lalia] 18
Zana Kane [Minie] 18

District Eleven Male
Marcus Creed [Arctic] 17
Obsidian Rye [arya] 18
Runyon Redpath [Paris] 17
Zehrili Qatil [emsrocks] 12

District Eleven Female
Quincey Rose [Meghan] 14

District Twelve Male
Jaxson Quill [Arctic] 18
Uriah Whyte [Cass] 18
Xylan Hertz [emsrocks] 15

District Twelve Female
None

9/315 for 18
6/311 for 17
3/185 for 16
5/300 for 12-15

or
2.9% of 18 year olds
1.9% of 17 year olds
1.6% of 16 year olds
1.7% of 12-15 year olds

Okay, to quickly clarify the meaning of these percentages. THEY ARE NOT CHANCES, THEY ARE THE AMOUNT OF CHARACTERS FROM THAT AGE GROUP THAT WERE REAPED. Meaning that it is not a 2.9% chance of an 18 year old being reaped, it's simply that 2.9% of the 18 year olds were reaped.

In order to combine these statistics with the odds of being reaped together you would need an equation much more complicated than a simple multiplication. Instead of attempting that, it would be much easier to find the amount of entries per spot and then divide your number of entries for that spot by that number. That will give you a more accurate representation of your new chances after the eliminations.

Last Edit: Jun 6, 2014 11:18:04 GMT -5 by Kire

On hills and waves on stormy days.

Meghan
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Reaping Hints, Try 2 Jun 6, 2014 2:18:21 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Meghan on Jun 6, 2014 2:18:21 GMT -5

Chance for 12-15 spot should be 1.6% per character, not 2.0% . Since Luna is 15, we know that her spot is taken, adjusting the odds to 5/301 bringing us to 1.6%. Otherwise, I really appreciate you adjusting the odds, Kire!!

I will update the sib-trib list in the morning. Thanks for listing names, people!

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Post by Meghan on Jun 5, 2014 13:34:03 GMT -5

Post by pup on Jun 5, 2014 13:59:35 GMT -5

Post by minie on Jun 5, 2014 14:04:21 GMT -5

Post by shrimp on Jun 5, 2014 14:19:04 GMT -5

Post by gamemaker 💀 hades lochlan on Jun 5, 2014 14:37:56 GMT -5

Post by Stare on Jun 5, 2014 15:26:37 GMT -5

Post by Wonder on Jun 5, 2014 15:44:39 GMT -5

Post by Meghan on Jun 5, 2014 17:16:22 GMT -5

Post by [ retro gm ] angel lí ✨ on Jun 5, 2014 19:31:20 GMT -5

Post by Victory on Jun 5, 2014 19:55:50 GMT -5

Post by Kire on Jun 5, 2014 20:21:34 GMT -5

Post by L△LIA on Jun 5, 2014 20:22:08 GMT -5

Post by lionel estrada d5 ᥫ᭡ kiah on Jun 5, 2014 20:23:57 GMT -5

Post by Kire on Jun 5, 2014 21:54:34 GMT -5

Post by Meghan on Jun 6, 2014 2:18:21 GMT -5

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